Keywords
Serbia
Geographical information systems
Analysis
Epidemiology
Spatial distribution
Retrospective studies
How to Cite
Abstract
African Swine Fever (ASF) has been posing a significant threat to pig production and wildlife management in the Republic of Serbia since its first detection in 2019. The goal of this study is to provide a comprehensive overview of the spatial and temporal spread of ASF in both domestic and wild pig populations in Serbia from the initial outbreak in the summer of 2019 through May 2025. Additionally, the study aimed to map the risk of ASF in the domestic pig sector to identify the areas where enhanced biosecurity measures could improve future disease control efforts.The analysis is based on official data obtained from the Serbian Veterinary Directorate, specifically from issued decisions related to all affected settlements and hunting grounds where ASF was confirmed. The data on the number of disease outbreaks used in the study are official records submitted to the European Commission through the Animal Diseases Information System for the 2019– 2025 period.
Between 2019 and 2025, the spread of ASF in Serbia followed a distinct trajectory, moving from the southeastern regions toward the northwest, ultimately reaching the West Bačka District in Vojvodina in 2025. The disease demonstrates distinct seasonal dynamics: in domestic pigs, the majority of outbreaks occur during summer months, with an additional peak observed in November and December, while in wild boars the number of cases increases during the winter period. ASF is showing signs of becoming endemic in Serbia. The implemented control strategies have largely been reactive rather than preventive, demonstrating limited effectiveness in altering the overall trajectory of the epidemic. The principal risk factors contributing to the spread of ASF in Serbia are linked to the continued circulation of the virus between domestic pig and wild boar populations, predominantly driven by human activities associated with both animal groups.
References
ADIS, 2019. Outbreaks overview report 2019. Available at https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/tracesnt/adis/public/notification/outbreaks-overview-reports?reportYear=2019, Accessed: 5.7.2025.
ADIS, 2020. Outbreaks overview report 2020. Available at https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/tracesnt/adis/public/notification/outbreaks-overview-reports?reportYear=2020, Accessed: 5.7.2025.
ADIS, 2021. Outbreaks overview report 2021. Available at https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/tracesnt/adis/public/notification/outbreaks-overview-reports?reportYear=2021, Accessed: 5.7.2025.
ADIS, 2022. Outbreaks overview report 2022. Available at https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/tracesnt/adis/public/notification/outbreaks-overview-reports?reportYear=2022, Accessed: 5.7.2025.
ADIS, 2023. Outbreaks overview report 2023. Available at https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/tracesnt/adis/public/notification/outbreaks-overview-reports?reportYear=2023, Accessed: 5.7.2025.
ADIS, 2024. Outbreaks overview report 2024. Available at https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/tracesnt/adis/public/notification/outbreaks-overview-reports?reportYear=2024, Accessed: 5.7.2025.
ADIS, 2025. Outbreaks current year. Available at https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/tracesnt/adis/public/notification/outbreaks-current-year-report, Accessed: 5.7.2025.
Bergmann, H., Schulz, K., Conraths, F.J., Sauter-Louis, C. 2021. A review of environmental risk factors for african swine fever in european wild boar. Animals (Basel), 11, 9, 2692. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani11092692
Biebaut, E., Stukelj, M., Chantziaras, I., Nunes, T.P., Nedosekov, V., Gomes, C.C., Mehmedi, B., Correge, I., Ozsvari, L., Svennesen, L., Bernaerdt, E., Toppari, I., Gresakova, L., Romanelli, C., Filippitzi, M.E., Meling, S., Angjelovski, B., Kuker, S., Viltrop, A., Didara, M., Nikolic, M., Nicolaisen, T., Vink, E., Dahlin, L., Kureljusic, B., Baraitareanu, S., Allepuz, A., Prodanov-Radulovic, J., 2025. Large heterogeneity in biosecurity legislation in the intensive pig production across Europe. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 237, 106439. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2025.106439
Boklund, A., Dhollander, S., Chesnoiu Vasile, T., Abrahantes, J.C., Bøtner, A., Gogin, A., Gonzalez Villeta, L.C., Gortázar, C., More, S.J., Papanikolaou, A., Roberts, H., Stegeman, A., Ståhl, K., Thulke, H.H., Viltrop, A., Van der Stede, Y., Mortensen, S., 2020. Risk factors for African swine fever incursion in Romanian domestic farms during 2019. Scientific Reports 10, 1, https://doi.org/10215,10.1038/s41598-020-66381-3
Calò, S., Tironi, M., Cappa, V., Scaburri, A., Perna, S.F., Chiari, M., Marracci, M., Bellini, S., 2023. Evaluation of the Risk of African Swine Fever Virus Transmission at the Interface between Feral and Domestic Pigs in Lombardy, with a View to Establishing Preventive Measures for Domestic Pigs. Pathogens, 12, 12, 1462. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens12121462
Carrau, T., Malakauskas, A., Masiulis, M., Busauskas, P., Japertas, S., Blome, S., Deutschmann, P., Friedrichs, V., Pilevieciene, S., Dietze, K., Beltran-Alcrudo, D., Hovari, M., Flory, G.A., 2023. Composting of Wild Boar Carcasses in Lithuania Leads to Inactivation of African Swine Fever Virus in Wintertime. Pathogens, 12, 2, 285. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens12020285
Chenais, E., Depner, K., Guberti, V., Dietze, K., Viltrop, A., Ståhl, K. 2019. Epidemiological considerations on African swine fever in Europe 2014-2018. Porcine Health Management, 5, 6. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40813-018-0109-2
Gao, Y., Boklund, A.E., Nielsen, L.H., Alban, L., de Jong, M.C.M. 2023. Estimating the impact of low temperature on African swine fever virus transmission through contaminated environments. Preventive veterinary medicine, 219, 105991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2023.105991
Gervasi, V., Marcon, A., Bellini, S., Guberti, V. 2020. Evaluation of the efficiency of active and passive surveillance in the detection of african swine fever in wild boar. Veterinary Sciences, 7, 1, 5. https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci7010005.
Glišić D, Šolaja S, Veljović L, Maksimović-Zorić J, Milićević V. 2025. Spatiotemporal analysis of African swine fever in wild boar in Serbia from 2020 to 2024. The Onderstepoort journal of veterinary research, 92, 1, e1-e7. https://doi.org/10.4102/ojvr.v92i1.2209
Glisic, D., Milicevic, V., Veljovic, L., Milovanovic, B., Kureljusic, B., Dordevic, I., Andelkovic, K., Petkovic, J., Dacic, M., 2023. Patterns of ASFV Transmission in Domestic Pigs in Serbia. Pathogens, 12, 1, 149. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens12010149
Guinat, C., Gogin, A., Blome, S., Keil, G., Pollin, R., Pfeiffer, D.U., Dixon, L. 2016. Transmission routes of African swine fever virus to domestic pigs: Current knowledge and future research directions. The Veterinary record, 178,11, 262-267. https://doi.org/10.1136/vr.103593
Kureljušić, B., Biebaut E., Caekebeke N., Milovanović B., Maletić J., Prodanov-Radulović J., Dewulf J. 2025. Biosecurity assessment in backyard pig production in Serbia – first results of pilot testing by using the Biocheck.UGent tool. In Book of abstracts, First conference on animal biosecurity, 5th-6th june 2025, Barselona, Spain.
Kureljušić, B., Maletić, J., Savić, B., Milovanović, B., Ninković, M., Jezdimirović, N., Prodanov-Radulović, J. 2024. Evaluating Biosecurity on Selected Commercial Pig Farms in Serbia. Macedonian Veterinary Review 47, 2, 141-149. https://doi.org/10.2478/macvetrev-2024-0025
Lazov, C.M., Olesen, A.S., Belsham, G.J., Botner, A., 2025. Assessing Virus Survival in African Swine Fever Virus-Contaminated Materials-Implications for Indirect Virus Transmission. Viruses 17, 1, 63. https://doi.org/10.3390/v17010063
Martinez Aviles, M., Bosch, J., Ivorra, B., Ramos, A.M., Ito, S., Barasona, J.A., Sanchez-Vizcaino, J.M., 2023. Epidemiological impacts of attenuated African swine fever virus circulating in wild boar populations. Research in veterinary science, 162, 104964. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rvsc.2023.104964
Milićević, V., Kureljušić, B., Zorić, J.M., Savić, B., Stanojević, S., Milakara, E., 2019. First Occurence of African Swine Fever in Serbia. Acta Veterinaria 69, 4, 443-449. https://doi.org/10.2478/acve-2019-0038
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management of the Republic of Serbia, Veterinary Directorate. 2023-2025. Afrička kuga svinja aktuelne informacije. Available at https://www.vet.minpolj.gov.rs/zarazne-bolesti-zivotinja/africka-kuga-svinja-aktuelne-informacije Accessed: 1.7.2025
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management of the Republic of Serbia, Forest Directorate. 2025. Granice lovišta. Available at https://upravazasume.gov.rs/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Granica_lovista_RS.zip Accessed: 1.7.2025
Nešković, M., Ristić, B., Došenović, R., Grubač, S., Petrović, T., Prodanov-Radulović, J., Polaček, V., 2021. African Swine Fever Outbreak Investigation on Large Commercial Pig Farm in Serbia. Acta Veterinaria 71, 2, 219-229. https://doi.org/10.2478/acve-2021-0019
Nielsen, S.S., et al., 2019. Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe. EFSA Journal 17, e05861 https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861.
Olesen, A.S., Belsham, G.J., Bruun Rasmussen, T., Lohse, L., Bødker, R., Halasa, T., Boklund, A., Bøtner, A. 2020. Potential routes for indirect transmission of African swine fever virus into domestic pig herds. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 67, 4, 1472-1484. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13538
Olesen, A.S., Hansen, M.F., Rasmussen, T.B., Belsham, G.J., Bødker, R., Bøtner, A., 2018a. Survival and localization of African swine fever virus in stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans) after feeding on viremic blood using a membrane feeder. Veterinary Microbiology, 222, 25-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vetmic.2018.06.010
Olesen, A.S., Lazov, C.M., Lecocq, A., Accensi, F., Jensen, A.B., Lohse, L., Rasmussen, T.B., Belsham, G.J., Botner, A., 2022. Uptake and Survival of African Swine Fever Virus in Mealworm (Tenebrio molitor) and Black Soldier Fly (Hermetia illucens) Larvae. Pathogens 12, 1, 47. https://doi.org/1010.3390/pathogens12010047
Olesen, A.S., Lohse, L., Hansen, M.F., Boklund, A., Halasa, T., Belsham, G.J., Rasmussen, T.B., Bøtner, A., Bødker, R., 2018b. Infection of pigs with African swine fever virus via ingestion of stable flies (Stomoxys calcitrans). Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 65, 5, 1152-1157. https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.12918
Pascual-Rico, R., Acevedo, P., Apollonio, M., Blanco-Aguiar, J.A., Body, G., del Rio, L., Ferroglio, E., Gomez, A., Keuling, O., Plis, K., Podgórski, T., Preite, L., Ruiz-Rodriguez, C., Scandura, M., Sebastian, M., Soriguer, R., Smith, G.C., Vada, R., Zanet, S., Vicente, J., Carpio, A. 2022. Wild boar ecology: a review of wild boar ecological and demographic parameters by bioregion all over Europe. EFSA Supporting Publications 19, 3, 7211E. https://doi.org/10.2903/sp.efsa.2022.EN-7211
Penrith, M.L., van Heerden, J., Pfeiffer, D.U., Olsevskis, E., Depner, K., Chenais, E., 2023. Innovative Research Offers New Hope for Managing African Swine Fever Better in Resource-Limited Smallholder Farming Settings: A Timely Update. Pathogens 12, 2,355. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens12020355
Plut, J., Hajdinjak, M., Prodanov-Radulovic, J., Grubac, S., Djurdjevic, B., Stukelj, M., 2023. Risk Factor Impact on African Swine Fever Transmission in Different Extensive Pig Production Settings in Serbia. Viruses, 15, 6, 1232. https://doi.org/10.3390/v15061232
Polaček, V., Mirčeta, J., Prodanov-Radulović, J., 2021. Key Risk Factors And Impact Of African Swine Fever Spreding On Pig Production In Serbia. Acta Veterinaria, 71, 4, 371-391. https://doi.org/10.2478/acve-2021-0032
Prodanov-Radulovic, J., Mirceta, J., Djurdjevic, B., Lazic, S., Aleksic-Kovacevic, S., Petrovic, J., Polacek, V., 2023. African Swine Fever Outbreak in an Enclosed Wild Boar Hunting Ground in Serbia. Pathogens, 12, 5, 691. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens12050691
Prodanov-Radulovic, J.Z., Đurđević, B., Petrović, J., Mirčeta, J., Polaček, V., 2022. African swine fever: a biosecurity challenge for domestic pig production in Serbia. Archives of Veterinary Medicine 15, 2, 21-38. https://doi.org/10.46784/e-avm.v15i2.310
Rusinà, A., Valentini, F., Scollo, A., Franceschini, G., Salvato, S., Cappa, V., Bellato, A., Mannelli, A., Bellini, S., 2023. Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Virus Introduction in Outdoor Pig Farms. Pathogens, 12, 5, 709. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens12050709
Sánchez-Cordón, P.J., Montoya, M., Reis, A.L., Dixon, L.K. 2018. African swine fever: A re-emerging viral disease threatening the global pig industry. Veterinary Journal, 233, 41-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tvjl.2017.12.025
Stahl, K., Boklund, A.E., Podgorski, T., Vergne, T., Abrahantes, J.C., Cattaneo, E., Papanikolaou, A., Mur, L., 2024. Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union during 2023. EFSA journal / European Food Safety Authority, 22, 5, e8809. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2024.8809
Stahl, K., Boklund, A.E., Podgorski, T., Vergne, T., Aminalragia-Giamini, R., Abrahantes, J.C., Papaleo, S., Mur, L., 2025. Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union during 2024. EFSA journal / European Food Safety Authority, 23, 5, e9436. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2025.9436
Statistical Office Republic of Serbia 2024. Census of Agriculture 2023, Available at https://popispoljoprivrede.stat.gov.rs/media/31092/brosura-srpski-sa-koricom.pdf Accessed: 25.7.2025.
Vasic, A., Milovanovic, B., Glisic, D., Kavran, M., Kureljusic, J., Zivulj, A., Kureljusic, B., Milicevic, V., 2024. The transmission routes of African swine fever during an outbreak in Serbia July-August 2023: African swine fever virus detections in environmental samples and insects. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 11, 1467273. https://doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2024.1467273
Whitaker, S.H., Mannelli, A., Kitron, U., Bellini, S., 2024. An analysis of the social, cultural, and ecological factors that affect the implementation of biosecurity measures on smallholder commercial swine farms in Italy in the context of an emerging African Swine Fever outbreak. Preventive veterinary medicine, 229, 106238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2024.106238
WOAH, 2024. African Swine Fever (ASF)—Situation Report 52. Available at: https://www.woah.org/app/uploads/2024/06/asf-report52.pdf Accessed: 21.07.2025.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2025 Archives of Veterinary Medicine